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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1363

Elo1419

Will BrooksvsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:30

Style matchupWill Brooks: WrestlervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Will Brooks wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Will Brooks at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Will Brooks has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Will Brooks has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alex Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Will Brooks

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1363

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Will BrooksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 16

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Apr 17

SUBvs Nik Lentz · Nov 17

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Will BrooksMetricAlex Oliveira

4.26

Strikes / min

2.99

2.54

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

56%

Strike defense

46%

2.08

TDs / 15 min

2.35

82%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.72Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Will BrooksAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Will Brooks(4 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.3|Blue +56.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Will BrooksTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

100% acc · 13%

Head

78% acc · 44%

90% acc · 56%

Body

92% acc · 23%

100% acc · 31%

Leg

80% acc · 33%

By position

100% acc · 31%

Distance

60% acc · 13%

90% acc · 56%

Clinch

85% acc · 58%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

88% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Will Brooks rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:03

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:18Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control2:41

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 17

Sig Strikes

48 / 59

96.7%

Sig Str %

83%

29 / 37

Total Strikes

80 / 102

4 / 8

TDs

4 / 10

38.7%

TD %

44%

Sub Att

Rev

3:44

Ctrl Time

8:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	17 / 20	27 / 34	0 / 4	1
1	Will Brooks	10 / 11	14 / 15	2 / 4	0
2	Alex Oliveira	13 / 14	24 / 28	2 / 3	0
2	Will Brooks	2 / 2	6 / 13	2 / 3	0
3	Alex Oliveira	18 / 25	29 / 40	2 / 3	0
3	Will Brooks	4 / 4	9 / 9	0 / 1	0

Will Brooks

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21