Model Analytics

Performance metrics and model diagnostics

Active Model: ufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

Accuracy

N/A

Log Loss

N/A

ROC AUC

N/A

Engine 7.0 owner-approved early production release; Steps 10 and 11 were explicitly waived: Owner explicitly approved production activation today before Steps 10 and 11 because the site currently has no visitors; retain the honest waiver record and immediate rollback.

Features: 74

elo_diflayoff_difform_difwin_difloss_difwin_streak_diflongest_win_streak_diftitle_bouts_diftotal_rounds_difexperience_score+64 more

Model Evolution & Architecture

The UFC Predictor has evolved through three major engine generations. Each iteration improved prediction accuracy by adding new feature categories and refining the ML architecture.

Multi-model ensemble with specialized trainers (XGBoost, LightGBM, Sklearn) and advanced preprocessing.

Key Improvements

→Stacking ensemble with 4 base models
→Feature preprocessing pipeline
→Probability calibration (Platt scaling)
→Finish method prediction (KO/SUB/DEC)
→Mirror augmentation (2x training data)

Analyzed Factors

All Engine 2.0 factors

Striking efficiency (SLpM, SAcc)

Grappling control (TDAvg, TDAcc)

ELO momentum (recent ELO change)

Ranked opponent history

Title bout pressure analysis

Model Versions

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_2340055/12/202691.4% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_2340055/12/202691.4% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_2358425/12/202655.8% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_2358425/12/202667.4% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0006075/13/202655.8% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0006075/13/202667.8% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0021205/13/202655.6% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0021205/13/202667.6% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0252105/13/202655.8% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0252105/13/202668.7% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0252215/13/202655.8% acc

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0252215/13/202668.7% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0530345/16/202665.5% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0530345/16/202665.5% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0540595/16/202663.8% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0540595/16/202669.0% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0648425/16/202664.1% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0648425/16/202668.6% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0649315/16/202664.0% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0649315/16/202668.6% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0659105/16/202664.4% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0659105/16/202668.6% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0710235/16/202664.2% acc

ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_0710235/16/202664.7% acc

ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_0710235/16/202664.5% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0710235/16/202668.6% acc

ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_0710235/16/202669.7% acc

ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_0710235/16/202669.5% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0714415/16/202664.1% acc

ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_0714415/16/202664.6% acc

ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_0714415/16/202664.3% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0714415/16/202668.6% acc

ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_0714415/16/202669.6% acc

ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_0714415/16/202669.6% acc

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0717245/16/202664.1% acc

ufc_v3_pure_xgboost_20260516_0717245/16/202664.0% acc

ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_0717245/16/202664.6% acc

ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_0717245/16/202664.9% acc

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0717245/16/202668.6% acc

ufc_v3_odds_xgboost_20260516_0717245/16/202671.4% acc

ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_0717245/16/202670.4% acc

ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_0717245/16/202670.3% acc

Feature Categories (Active Model)

Core (11)

ELO, Age, Records, Form, Layoff

Striking (9)

SLpM, Accuracy, Striker rating

Grappling (7)

TD Average, Sub attempts, Control

Context (4)

Title bouts, Rankings, Physical

No prediction history yet

Stats will appear once fights conclude.

Model Versions

ufc_v7_0_20260718_090638ACTIVE

Trained: 7/18/2026

74 features

ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Trained: 7/15/2026

Engine 6.2 fresh production refit. Immediate launch explicitly approved; 50-fight prospective shadow gate overridden and recorded.

90 features

ufc_v5_odds_lightgbm_20260714_083150

Trained: 7/14/2026

Engine 5.0 odds_aware model. 91 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

67.4%

91 features

ufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260714_083150

Trained: 7/14/2026

Engine 5.0 pure model. 90 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

63.0%

90 features

ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260714_075043

Trained: 7/14/2026

Engine 6.2 INACTIVE challenger (retrospective B-WIN). Not serving, not published. Engine 5 remains active. Deployment separately gated.

90 features

ufc_v5_odds_sklearn_histgb_20260712_160457

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 5.0 odds_aware model. 91 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

67.9%

91 features

ufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_160457

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 5.0 pure model. 90 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

63.3%

90 features

ufc_v5_odds_sklearn_histgb_20260712_125850

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 5.0 odds_aware model. 91 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

67.9%

91 features

ufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 5.0 pure model. 90 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

63.3%

90 features

ufc_v5_odds_sklearn_histgb_20260712_095121

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 5.0 odds_aware model. 91 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

67.9%

91 features

ufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_095121

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 5.0 pure model. 90 features. Walk-forward validated. Calibrator off, cluster routing off, cohort calibration off, learned stack retired, equal-weight mean.

63.3%

90 features

ufc_v4_odds_sklearn_histgb_20260712_040524

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 91 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.9%

91 features

ufc_v4_pure_lightgbm_20260712_040524

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 90 features. Walk-forward validated.

63.3%

90 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260712_032841

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.5%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260712_032841

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

65.1%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_lightgbm_20260712_021652

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 91 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.2%

91 features

ufc_v4_pure_lightgbm_20260712_021652

Trained: 7/12/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 90 features. Walk-forward validated.

63.3%

90 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260711_163516

Trained: 7/11/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.8%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260711_163516

Trained: 7/11/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

63.9%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

Trained: 5/28/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

70.4%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

Trained: 5/28/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.0%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260528_104901

Trained: 5/28/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

68.5%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260528_104901

Trained: 5/28/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

66.9%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_sklearn_histgb_20260525_010315

Trained: 5/25/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

70.4%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260525_010315

Trained: 5/25/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

66.4%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260521_032024

Trained: 5/21/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

69.7%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260521_032024

Trained: 5/21/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.0%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_121258

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

71.0%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

66.4%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_120827

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

69.5%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_120827

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.2%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_110941

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

69.5%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.2%

50 features

ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_110308

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

69.7%

50 features

ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_110308

Trained: 5/17/2026

Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.

67.4%

50 features

ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

70.3%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

70.4%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_xgboost_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

71.4%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

68.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.9%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.6%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_xgboost_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.0%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_071724

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.1%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_071441

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

69.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_071441

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

69.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_071441

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

68.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_071441

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.3%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_071441

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.6%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_071441

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.1%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_071023

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

69.5%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_071023

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

69.7%

41 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_071023

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

68.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_071023

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.5%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_071023

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.7%

40 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_071023

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.2%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_065910

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

68.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_065910

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.4%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_064931

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

68.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_064931

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.0%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_064842

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

68.6%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_064842

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

64.1%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_054059

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 41 features.

69.0%

41 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_054059

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 40 features.

63.8%

40 features

ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_053034

Trained: 5/16/2026

odds_aware model. 22 features.

65.5%

22 features

ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_053034

Trained: 5/16/2026

pure model. 22 features.

65.5%

22 features

sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_122511

Trained: 5/14/2026

Trained on 526 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_122511.pkl

79.2%

26 features

sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_121502

Trained: 5/14/2026

Trained on 526 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_121502.pkl

79.2%

26 features

sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_114504

Trained: 5/14/2026

Trained on 526 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_114504.pkl

86.9%

26 features

sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_102552

Trained: 5/14/2026

REVERTED - leakage: fighter-table stats are career-current, not point-in-time

86.9%

32 features

sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_102310

Trained: 5/14/2026

REVERTED - leakage: fighter-table stats are career-current, not point-in-time

86.9%

32 features

v1.0

Trained: 5/13/2026

Initial baseline with Elo, form, and striking differentials

0 features

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_025221

Trained: 5/13/2026

Odds-aware model. 35 features.

68.7%

35 features

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_025221

Trained: 5/13/2026

Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.

55.8%

34 features

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_025210

Trained: 5/13/2026

Odds-aware model. 35 features.

68.7%

35 features

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_025210

Trained: 5/13/2026

Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.

55.8%

34 features

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_002120

Trained: 5/13/2026

Odds-aware model. 35 features.

67.6%

35 features

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_002120

Trained: 5/13/2026

Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.

55.6%

34 features

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_000607

Trained: 5/13/2026

Odds-aware model. 35 features.

67.8%

35 features

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_000607

Trained: 5/13/2026

Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.

55.8%

34 features

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_235842

Trained: 5/12/2026

Odds-aware model. 35 features.

67.4%

35 features

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_235842

Trained: 5/12/2026

Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.

55.8%

34 features

ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_234005

Trained: 5/12/2026

Odds-aware model. 35 features.

91.4%

35 features

ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_234005

Trained: 5/12/2026

Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.

91.4%

34 features

sklearn_gb_baseline_v1_20260511_115142

Trained: 5/11/2026

Trained on 806 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_baseline_v1_20260511_115142.pkl

100.0%

26 features