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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Walt Harris won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1402
Elo1506
Serghei Spivac

Walt HarrisvsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Walt Harris won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:50

Style matchupWalt Harris: StrikervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Walt Harris wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Walt Harris wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Walt Harris at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Walt Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Walt Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Walt Harris
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1402
Elo
1506
43
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'5"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Walt HarrisL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Daniel Spitz · Jun 18
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 19
L
KOvs Alistair Overeem · May 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20
L
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jun 21
latest
Serghei Spivac
oldest →
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23
W
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24
L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25
L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25
W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Walt HarrisMetricSerghei Spivac
3.05
Strikes / min
3.57
3.33
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
54%
Strike defense
52%
0.29
TDs / 15 min
3.82
70%
Takedown defense
63%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes21.1 vs —Takedowns0.2 vs —Sub Atts0.09 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Walt HarrisSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Walt Harris(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -104.8|Blue +104.8
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Walt HarrisTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

17
63% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

9
50% acc · 53%
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
3
75% acc · 18%
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 29%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Walt Harris rounds
0
even
0
Serghei Spivac rounds
Round 1Walt Harris edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
17 / 28
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
60%
Sig Str %
33%
17 / 28
Total Strikes
1 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Serghei Spivac1 / 31 / 30 / 00
1Walt Harris17 / 2817 / 280 / 00

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw
Height77.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights15

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15