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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Mackenzie Dern won · U-DEC R5

Elo1529

Elo1521

Virna JandirobavsMackenzie DernUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupVirna Jandiroba: WrestlervsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at -134 American odds

+$75 profit

$175 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Virna Jandiroba enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Virna Jandiroba has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Virna Jandiroba

Red Corner

Mackenzie Dern

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-134

(57%)

1529

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Virna JandirobaW5 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · May 23

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 24

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 25

DECvs Tabatha Ricci · Apr 26

latest

Mackenzie DernW2 streak

oldest →

vs Angela Hill · May 23

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Virna JandirobaMetricMackenzie Dern

2.27

Strikes / min

3.47

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

55%

Strike defense

51%

3.13

TDs / 15 min

0.93

72%

Takedown defense

37%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Virna JandirobaMackenzie Dern

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Virna Jandiroba(10 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.0|Blue -8.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Virna JandirobaTargetMackenzie Dern

By target zone

41% acc · 68%

Head

44% acc · 71%

80% acc · 19%

Body

84% acc · 18%

93% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

43% acc · 78%

Distance

45% acc · 75%

95% acc · 19%

Clinch

80% acc · 7%

75% acc · 3%

Ground

95% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Virna Jandiroba rounds

even

Mackenzie Dern rounds

Round 1Virna Jandiroba edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control1:57

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 2Virna Jandiroba edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:24

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Virna Jandiroba edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:09

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 4Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:13

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 5Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control2:24

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

106 / 217

Sig Strikes

118 / 231

48.6%

Sig Str %

51.2%

208 / 331

Total Strikes

249 / 372

9 / 17

TDs

2 / 8

56.2%

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

9:07

Ctrl Time

3:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mackenzie Dern	20 / 36	38 / 58	0 / 0
1	Virna Jandiroba	27 / 45	41 / 60	2 / 3
2	Mackenzie Dern	19 / 44	50 / 77	0 / 2
2	Virna Jandiroba	14 / 34	45 / 72	2 / 3
3	Mackenzie Dern	18 / 32	52 / 68	0 / 3
3	Virna Jandiroba	14 / 27	38 / 53	2 / 6
4	Virna Jandiroba	28 / 58	42 / 73	1 / 2
4	Mackenzie Dern	26 / 62	38 / 74	1 / 2
5	Mackenzie Dern	35 / 57	71 / 95	1 / 1
5	Virna Jandiroba	23 / 53	42 / 73	2 / 3

Virna Jandiroba

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16