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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tom Aspinall won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1516

Elo1506

Tom AspinallvsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Saturday, September 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tom Aspinall won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupTom Aspinall: WrestlervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Tom Aspinall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Tom Aspinall has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tom Aspinall

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1516

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tom Aspinall

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 22

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tom AspinallMetricSerghei Spivac

7.63

Strikes / min

3.57

3.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

56%

Strike defense

52%

2.62

TDs / 15 min

3.82

100%

Takedown defense

63%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.01Δ 4.67 — meaningful gap-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tom AspinallSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tom Aspinall(9 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.6|Blue -9.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tom AspinallTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

55% acc · 75%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

By position

54% acc · 44%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

60% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tom Aspinall rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Tom Aspinall edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 26

Sig Strikes

0 / 11

61%

Sig Str %

16 / 26

Total Strikes

0 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Serghei Spivac	0 / 11	0 / 11	0 / 2	0
1	Tom Aspinall	16 / 26	16 / 26	0 / 0	0

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights10

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15