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Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · SUB R2
Elo1353
TJ Waldburger
Elo1490
Nick Catone

TJ WaldburgervsNick CatoneUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

TJ Waldburger won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:04

Style matchupTJ Waldburger: WrestlervsNick Catone: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(50.7%)

Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Waldburger at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Waldburger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • TJ Waldburger threatens submissions; Nick Catone has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Nick Catone has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Nick Catone has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Nick Catone (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
Nick Catone
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1353
Elo
1490
38
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ WaldburgerL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12
L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14
latest
Nick Catone
oldest →
W
DECvs Costas Philippou · Mar 11
L
KOvs Chris Camozzi · Jun 12
W
vs Tom Watson · Feb 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ WaldburgerMetricNick Catone
2.02
Strikes / min
2.11
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
40%
Strike defense
63%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
3.71
40%
Takedown defense
83%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1497Strikes13.0 vs 25.8Takedowns2.2 vs 2.8Sub Atts2.80 vs 0.50Form0.1 vs -0.5
TJ WaldburgerNick Catone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Nick Catone(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.4|Blue +137.4
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ WaldburgerTargetNick Catone

By target zone

10
71% acc · 77%
Head
6
55% acc · 60%
2
100% acc · 15%
Body
1
50% acc · 10%
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
3
100% acc · 30%

By position

3
60% acc · 23%
Distance
1
33% acc · 10%
3
100% acc · 23%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 40%
7
78% acc · 54%
Ground
5
71% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Waldburger rounds
0
even
1
Nick Catone rounds
Round 1Nick Catone edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control1:14
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:38Control
Round 2TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:41Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
13 / 17
Sig Strikes
10 / 16
75.5%
Sig Str %
80%
14 / 18
Total Strikes
14 / 20
1 / 5
TDs
1 / 2
20%
TD %
50%
4
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
1:19
Ctrl Time
3:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nick Catone9 / 1513 / 191 / 20
1TJ Waldburger5 / 76 / 81 / 51
2Nick Catone1 / 11 / 10 / 00
2TJ Waldburger8 / 108 / 100 / 03

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Nick Catone

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4