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Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · SUB R1
Elo1353
TJ Waldburger
Elo1352
Mike Stumpf

TJ WaldburgervsMike StumpfUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

TJ Waldburger won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:52

Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(82.9%)

Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Waldburger at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • TJ Waldburger threatens submissions; Mike Stumpf has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • TJ Waldburger has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
Mike Stumpf
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1353
Elo
1352
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ WaldburgerL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12
W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12
L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14
latest
Mike Stumpf
oldest →
L
vs Pascal Krauss · Jan 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ WaldburgerMetricMike Stumpf
2.02
Strikes / min
3.34
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
8.85
40%
Strike defense
47%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
1.59
40%
Takedown defense
33%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 5.14 — meaningful gap-5.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes20.0 vs —Takedowns3.0 vs —Sub Atts3.50 vs —Form-0.2 vs 0.0
TJ WaldburgerMike Stumpf

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Mike Stumpf(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ WaldburgerTargetMike Stumpf

By target zone

2
50% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 25%
Leg
0

By position

1
25% acc · 25%
Distance
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 25%
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 50%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Waldburger rounds
0
even
0
Mike Stumpf rounds
Round 1TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns3
Control3:14
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 7
Sig Strikes
0 / 4
57%
Sig Str %
0%
8 / 11
Total Strikes
6 / 10
3 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
3:14
Ctrl Time
0:24

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Stumpf0 / 46 / 100 / 01
1TJ Waldburger4 / 78 / 113 / 42

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Mike Stumpf

Stance—
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights2