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Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · SUB R1
Elo1353
TJ Waldburger
Elo1351

TJ WaldburgervsJake HechtUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann · Friday, March 2, 2012Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

TJ Waldburger won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:55

Style matchupTJ Waldburger: WrestlervsJake Hecht: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: TJ Waldburger wins(54.8%)

Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Waldburger at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jake Hecht is a KO finisher (100% of wins). TJ Waldburger has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • TJ Waldburger threatens submissions; Jake Hecht has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Jake Hecht has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
Jake Hecht
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1353
Elo
1351
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ WaldburgerL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12
W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12
L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14
latest
Jake Hecht
oldest →
W
KOvs Rich Attonito · Dec 11
L
vs Sean Pierson · Jun 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ WaldburgerMetricJake Hecht
2.02
Strikes / min
3.26
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
40%
Strike defense
56%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
2.04
40%
Takedown defense
40%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1520Strikes14.7 vs 33.0Takedowns3.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts3.00 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 1.0
TJ WaldburgerJake Hecht

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Jake Hecht(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Layoff
Red +84.0|Blue -84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ WaldburgerTargetJake Hecht

By target zone

2
100% acc · 67%
Head
1
25% acc · 50%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

3
100% acc · 100%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
TJ Waldburger rounds
0
even
0
Jake Hecht rounds
Round 1TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:06
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 3
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
100%
Sig Str %
40%
3 / 3
Total Strikes
2 / 5
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Hecht2 / 52 / 50 / 00
1TJ Waldburger3 / 33 / 31 / 11

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Jake Hecht

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights3