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Welterweight
3 Rounds
TJ Waldburger won · U-DEC R3
Elo1353
TJ Waldburger
Elo1352
David Mitchell

TJ WaldburgervsDavid MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

TJ Waldburger won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: David Mitchell wins(53.1%)

Actual result: TJ Waldburger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

David Mitchell at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • David Mitchell has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
David Mitchell
Blue Corner
+140
(42%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1353
Elo
1352
38
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ WaldburgerL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12
W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12
L
KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14
latest
David MitchellL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Paulo Thiago · Aug 11
W
vs Simeon Thoresen · Jan 13
L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Jul 13
L
vs Yan Cabral · Oct 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ WaldburgerMetricDavid Mitchell
2.02
Strikes / min
1.74
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.06
40%
Strike defense
55%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
0.66
40%
Takedown defense
29%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37evenly matched on net striking-0.32
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ WaldburgerTargetDavid Mitchell

By target zone

32
62% acc · 86%
Head
9
82% acc · 69%
1
50% acc · 3%
Body
2
67% acc · 15%
4
100% acc · 11%
Leg
2
50% acc · 15%

By position

3
100% acc · 8%
Distance
3
60% acc · 23%
3
60% acc · 8%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 31%
31
62% acc · 84%
Ground
6
86% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
TJ Waldburger rounds
0
even
0
David Mitchell rounds
Round 1TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control3:18
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 2TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control2:46
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:02Control
Round 3TJ Waldburger edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns2
Control4:50
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
37 / 58
Sig Strikes
13 / 18
65.3%
Sig Str %
76%
69 / 96
Total Strikes
50 / 59
6 / 7
TDs
2 / 3
88.7%
TD %
75%
7
Sub Att
6
3
Rev
0
10:54
Ctrl Time
1:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1David Mitchell4 / 76 / 91 / 24
1TJ Waldburger14 / 2219 / 272 / 23
2David Mitchell5 / 724 / 281 / 11
2TJ Waldburger5 / 715 / 182 / 33
3David Mitchell4 / 420 / 220 / 01
3TJ Waldburger18 / 2935 / 512 / 21

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

David Mitchell

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5