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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Adlan Amagov won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1353
TJ Waldburger
Elo1490

TJ WaldburgervsAdlan AmagovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Adlan Amagov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:00

Style matchupTJ Waldburger: WrestlervsAdlan Amagov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Adlan Amagov wins(64.5%)

Actual result: Adlan Amagov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Adlan Amagov at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Adlan Amagov is a KO finisher (50% of wins). TJ Waldburger has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Adlan Amagov has 38pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Adlan Amagov has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

TJ Waldburger
Red Corner
VS
Adlan Amagov
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
1353
Elo
1490
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

TJ Waldburger
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11
W
SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12
W
SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12
L
KOvs Mike Pyle · Feb 14
latest
Adlan Amagov
oldest →
W
vs Chris Spang · Apr 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

TJ WaldburgerMetricAdlan Amagov
2.02
Strikes / min
3.29
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
0.82
40%
Strike defense
78%
3.03
TDs / 15 min
5.84
40%
Takedown defense
100%
4.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.37Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap+2.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1519Strikes13.0 vs 38.0Takedowns2.0 vs 6.0Sub Atts3.00 vs 0.00Form0.4 vs 1.0
TJ WaldburgerAdlan Amagov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
TJ Waldburger(8 fights)Adlan Amagov(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -137.4|Blue +137.4
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

TJ WaldburgerTargetAdlan Amagov

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
10
56% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
3
50% acc · 20%
3
60% acc · 75%
Leg
2
100% acc · 13%

By position

3
33% acc · 75%
Distance
3
30% acc · 20%
1
100% acc · 25%
Clinch
5
71% acc · 33%
0
Ground
7
78% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
TJ Waldburger rounds
0
even
1
Adlan Amagov rounds
Round 1Adlan Amagov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:38
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
4 / 10
Sig Strikes
15 / 26
40%
Sig Str %
57%
4 / 10
Total Strikes
23 / 34
0 / 3
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:38
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Adlan Amagov15 / 2623 / 340 / 10
1TJ Waldburger4 / 104 / 100 / 30

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Adlan Amagov

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2