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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1500

Elo1491

Tim ElliottvsMatheus NicolauUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTim Elliott: WrestlervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matheus Nicolau has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tim Elliott

Red Corner

Matheus Nicolau

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1500

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tim ElliottMetricMatheus Nicolau

3.51

Strikes / min

3.31

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

56%

Strike defense

65%

3.61

TDs / 15 min

1.22

59%

Takedown defense

90%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tim ElliottMatheus Nicolau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tim Elliott(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.6|Blue -8.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tim ElliottTargetMatheus Nicolau

By target zone

24% acc · 56%

Head

44% acc · 44%

39% acc · 16%

Body

82% acc · 48%

74% acc · 29%

Leg

63% acc · 8%

By position

30% acc · 89%

Distance

60% acc · 100%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 1%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tim Elliott rounds

even

Matheus Nicolau rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:34

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:18

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:36

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 215

Sig Strikes

64 / 109

32.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

105 / 255

Total Strikes

128 / 176

1 / 10

TDs

1 / 1

8.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:28

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matheus Nicolau	19 / 29	23 / 33	0 / 0
1	Tim Elliott	24 / 62	26 / 64	1 / 4
2	Matheus Nicolau	31 / 56	31 / 56	0 / 0
2	Tim Elliott	29 / 101	31 / 105	0 / 5
3	Matheus Nicolau	14 / 24	74 / 87	1 / 1
3	Tim Elliott	17 / 52	48 / 86	0 / 1

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11