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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Duncan won · SUB R1

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Elo1535

Terrance McKinneyvsChris DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Duncan won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupTerrance McKinney: WrestlervsChris Duncan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at +108 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Duncan threatens submissions; Terrance McKinney has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Terrance McKinney has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Terrance McKinney

Red Corner

Chris Duncan

Blue Corner

+108

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-126

(56%)

1504

Elo

1535

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Esteban Ribovics · May 24

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Chris Duncan

oldest →

SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24

SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24

SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Terrance McKinneyMetricChris Duncan

6.53

Strikes / min

4.83

3.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

43%

Strike defense

50%

3.31

TDs / 15 min

2.92

72%

Takedown defense

55%

2.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+3.08Δ 2.82 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Terrance McKinneyChris Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Terrance McKinney(10 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.1|Blue +31.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Terrance McKinneyTargetChris Duncan

By target zone

52% acc · 84%

Head

71% acc · 95%

71% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 5%

Leg

0% acc

By position

53% acc · 77%

Distance

50% acc · 26%

55% acc · 19%

Clinch

75% acc · 16%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

81% acc · 58%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Terrance McKinney rounds

even

Chris Duncan rounds

Round 1Chris Duncan edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 57

Sig Strikes

38 / 55

54%

Sig Str %

69%

31 / 57

Total Strikes

53 / 75

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Duncan	38 / 55	53 / 75	1 / 2	1
1	Terrance McKinney	31 / 57	31 / 57	0 / 0	0

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8