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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Serghei Spivac won · SUB R2

Elo1453

Elo1506

Tai TuivasavsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:14

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at +270 American odds

+$270 profit

$370 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Serghei Spivac has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1453

Elo

1506

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricSerghei Spivac

3.37

Strikes / min

3.57

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

42%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.82

58%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.8|Blue +53.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

25% acc · 38%

Head

54% acc · 96%

50% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 4%

90% acc · 43%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 81%

Distance

30% acc · 35%

44% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 61%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:06

10Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:25Control

Round 2Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 50

Sig Strikes

23 / 42

48%

Sig Str %

54.5%

22 / 51

Total Strikes

40 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 8

—

TD %

73%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

4:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Serghei Spivac	10 / 20	21 / 31	4 / 5	0
1	Tai Tuivasa	13 / 37	14 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Serghei Spivac	13 / 22	19 / 29	2 / 3	1
2	Tai Tuivasa	8 / 13	8 / 13	0 / 0	0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15