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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Waldo Cortes Acosta won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1562

Serghei SpivacvsWaldo Cortes AcostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Waldo Cortes Acosta won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSerghei Spivac: WrestlervsWaldo Cortes Acosta: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Waldo Cortes Acosta wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Waldo Cortes Acosta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Waldo Cortes Acosta at +142 American odds

+$142 profit

$242 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Waldo Cortes Acosta is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Serghei Spivac

Red Corner

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Blue Corner

-168

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1506

Elo

1562

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 23

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Waldo Cortes Acosta

oldest →

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Aug 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Nov 25

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Nov 25

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jan 26

DECvs Alexander Volkov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Serghei SpivacMetricWaldo Cortes Acosta

3.57

Strikes / min

5.34

4.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

52%

Strike defense

54%

3.82

TDs / 15 min

0.40

63%

Takedown defense

73%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Serghei SpivacWaldo Cortes Acosta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Serghei Spivac(10 fights)Waldo Cortes Acosta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.2|Blue +55.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Serghei SpivacTargetWaldo Cortes Acosta

By target zone

36% acc · 81%

Head

39% acc · 69%

80% acc · 8%

Body

80% acc · 15%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

95% acc · 16%

By position

39% acc · 94%

Distance

105

47% acc · 95%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Serghei Spivac rounds

even

Waldo Cortes Acosta rounds

Round 1Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:36

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:15

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Waldo Cortes Acosta edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:34

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 119

Sig Strikes

110 / 235

39.7%

Sig Str %

46%

53 / 124

Total Strikes

111 / 236

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

27.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Waldo Cortes Acosta	27 / 59	28 / 60	0 / 0
1	Serghei Spivac	14 / 36	17 / 39	1 / 3
2	Waldo Cortes Acosta	36 / 77	36 / 77	0 / 0
2	Serghei Spivac	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 1
3	Waldo Cortes Acosta	47 / 99	47 / 99	0 / 0
3	Serghei Spivac	16 / 41	18 / 43	1 / 2

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Waldo Cortes Acosta

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7