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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Serghei Spivac won · KO/TKO

Elo1506

Elo1436

Serghei SpivacvsJared VanderaaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

KO/TKO

Style matchupSerghei Spivac: WrestlervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Serghei Spivac has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Serghei Spivac

Red Corner

Jared Vanderaa

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1506

Elo

1436

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Jared VanderaaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22

KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Serghei SpivacMetricJared Vanderaa

3.57

Strikes / min

4.96

4.23

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

52%

Strike defense

45%

3.82

TDs / 15 min

0.18

63%

Takedown defense

20%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66evenly matched on net striking-0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Serghei SpivacJared Vanderaa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Serghei Spivac(10 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.3|Blue -70.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Serghei SpivacTargetJared Vanderaa

By target zone

71% acc · 100%

Head

42% acc · 62%

Body

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

41% acc · 14%

Distance

50% acc · 85%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

80% acc · 86%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Serghei Spivac rounds

even

Jared Vanderaa rounds

Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control4:26

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control4:03

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 72

Sig Strikes

13 / 24

72%

Sig Str %

49.5%

107 / 135

Total Strikes

27 / 38

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:29

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Vanderaa	10 / 15	18 / 23	0 / 0
1	Serghei Spivac	15 / 20	38 / 46	2 / 2
2	Jared Vanderaa	3 / 9	9 / 15	0 / 0
2	Serghei Spivac	36 / 52	69 / 89	1 / 1

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Jared Vanderaa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7