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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Serghei Spivac won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1506

Elo1419

Serghei SpivacvsGreg HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:16

Style matchupSerghei Spivac: WrestlervsGreg Hardy: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(79.3%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Greg Hardy is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Serghei Spivac has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Serghei Spivac

Red Corner

Greg Hardy

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1506

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'5"

198.12 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Greg HardyL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Alekander Volkov · Nov 19

vs Yorgan De Castro · May 20

KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Dec 20

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Serghei SpivacMetricGreg Hardy

3.57

Strikes / min

4.79

4.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

52%

Strike defense

55%

3.82

TDs / 15 min

0.20

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.66Δ 2.14 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Serghei SpivacGreg Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Serghei Spivac(10 fights)Greg Hardy(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.0|Blue -87.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Serghei SpivacTargetGreg Hardy

By target zone

52% acc · 100%

Head

38% acc · 43%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

0% acc

Distance

58% acc · 100%

Clinch

70% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Serghei Spivac rounds

even

Greg Hardy rounds

Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control1:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 27

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

51%

Sig Str %

58%

17 / 30

Total Strikes

7 / 12

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Greg Hardy	7 / 12	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Serghei Spivac	14 / 27	17 / 30	3 / 4	0

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9