Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sage Northcutt won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Sage NorthcuttvsZak OttowUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Sage Northcutt won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:13

Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsZak Ottow: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(55.1%)

Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sage Northcutt at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zak Ottow has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Zak Ottow

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16

vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16

vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17

vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18

latest

Zak Ottow

oldest →

vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 17

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17

KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18

vs Dwight Grant · Dec 18

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricZak Ottow

3.58

Strikes / min

2.63

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

58%

Strike defense

58%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

0.97

41%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttZak Ottow

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Zak Ottow(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetZak Ottow

By target zone

64% acc · 75%

Head

36% acc · 83%

75% acc · 25%

Body

50% acc · 17%

0% acc

Leg

By position

40% acc · 25%

Distance

50% acc · 17%

85% acc · 46%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

78% acc · 29%

Ground

33% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Zak Ottow rounds

Round 1Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:59Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:56

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 37

Sig Strikes

6 / 16

64.5%

Sig Str %

36.5%

37 / 50

Total Strikes

33 / 47

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

100%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

5:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zak Ottow	4 / 10	24 / 34	0 / 1	1
1	Sage Northcutt	10 / 15	14 / 19	0 / 0	1
2	Zak Ottow	2 / 6	9 / 13	1 / 3	0
2	Sage Northcutt	14 / 22	23 / 31	1 / 1	0

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Zak Ottow

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8