Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sage Northcutt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1368

Sage NorthcuttvsThibault GoutiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Sage Northcutt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsThibault Gouti: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sage Northcutt at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thibault Gouti has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Thibault Gouti

Blue Corner

-375

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+313

(24%)

1491

Elo

1368

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16

vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16

vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17

KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18

latest

Thibault Gouti

oldest →

SUBvs Teemu Packalen · Feb 16

SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Jun 16

KOvs Chad Laprise · Aug 16

KOvs Andrew Holbrook · Sep 17

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricThibault Gouti

3.58

Strikes / min

3.68

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

58%

Strike defense

50%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

1.23

41%

Takedown defense

83%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 3.58 — meaningful gap-1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttThibault Gouti

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Thibault Gouti(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +122.8|Blue -122.8

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetThibault Gouti

By target zone

31% acc · 51%

Head

43% acc · 75%

80% acc · 25%

Body

33% acc · 7%

94% acc · 24%

Leg

45% acc · 18%

By position

36% acc · 65%

Distance

40% acc · 89%

90% acc · 14%

Clinch

93% acc · 21%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Thibault Gouti rounds

Round 1Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:36

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Thibault Gouti edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 3Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:17

5Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 138

Sig Strikes

28 / 66

44%

Sig Str %

40.7%

125 / 204

Total Strikes

30 / 68

1 / 9

TDs

4 / 5

11%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:53

Ctrl Time

6:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thibault Gouti	9 / 19	9 / 19	0 / 1	1
1	Sage Northcutt	22 / 45	36 / 63	1 / 3	0
2	Thibault Gouti	14 / 29	15 / 30	1 / 1	0
2	Sage Northcutt	12 / 41	28 / 57	0 / 3	0
3	Thibault Gouti	5 / 18	6 / 19	3 / 3	0
3	Sage Northcutt	29 / 52	61 / 84	0 / 3	0

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Thibault Gouti

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6