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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mickey Gall won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1485

Sage NorthcuttvsMickey GallUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · Saturday, December 17, 2016Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Mickey Gall won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:40

Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsMickey Gall: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Mickey Gall wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Mickey Gall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mickey Gall at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sage Northcutt enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mickey Gall enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Mickey Gall threatens submissions; Sage Northcutt has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Mickey Gall (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Mickey Gall

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1491

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16

vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16

vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17

vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18

KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18

latest

Mickey GallL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jordan Williams · Jul 21

vs Alex Morono · Dec 21

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 22

vs Bassil Hafez · Jun 24

KOvs Ramiz Brahimaj · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricMickey Gall

3.58

Strikes / min

3.50

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.72

58%

Strike defense

49%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

1.15

41%

Takedown defense

37%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttMickey Gall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Mickey Gall(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.8|Blue -5.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetMickey Gall

By target zone

38% acc · 46%

Head

53% acc · 89%

100% acc · 31%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 23%

Leg

50% acc · 11%

By position

44% acc · 54%

Distance

56% acc · 56%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

75% acc · 23%

Ground

38% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Mickey Gall rounds

Round 1Mickey Gall edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:59

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:47Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 23

Sig Strikes

9 / 18

56%

Sig Str %

51%

22 / 32

Total Strikes

29 / 40

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

3:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mickey Gall	4 / 10	17 / 24	2 / 2	2
1	Sage Northcutt	7 / 12	15 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Mickey Gall	5 / 8	12 / 16	0 / 0	1
2	Sage Northcutt	6 / 11	7 / 12	0 / 1	0

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Mickey Gall

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights13