Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sage Northcutt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1363

Sage NorthcuttvsMichel QuinonesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Sage Northcutt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sage Northcutt at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sage Northcutt has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Michel Quinones

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1491

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16

vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16

vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18

KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18

latest

Michel Quinones

oldest →

KOvs Jared Gordon · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricMichel Quinones

3.58

Strikes / min

2.91

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

5.98

58%

Strike defense

48%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

0.00

41%

Takedown defense

36%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 4.69 — meaningful gap-3.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttMichel Quinones

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Michel Quinones(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.6|Blue -128.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +190.0|Blue -190.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetMichel Quinones

By target zone

40% acc · 57%

Head

13% acc · 24%

63% acc · 19%

Body

53% acc · 16%

79% acc · 24%

Leg

80% acc · 60%

By position

48% acc · 97%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Michel Quinones rounds

Round 1Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:02

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:23

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:18

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 161

Sig Strikes

55 / 161

48.7%

Sig Str %

33%

82 / 166

Total Strikes

55 / 161

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Quinones	21 / 54	21 / 54	0 / 0
1	Sage Northcutt	25 / 52	25 / 52	1 / 1
2	Michel Quinones	25 / 57	25 / 57	0 / 0
2	Sage Northcutt	24 / 54	27 / 59	1 / 1
3	Michel Quinones	9 / 50	9 / 50	0 / 0
3	Sage Northcutt	30 / 55	30 / 55	1 / 3

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Michel Quinones

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2