Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sage Northcutt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1357

Sage NorthcuttvsEnrique MarinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sage Northcutt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsEnrique Marin: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Enrique Marin wins(66.8%)

Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Enrique Marin at +390 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Enrique Marin has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Enrique Marin

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Jan 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16

vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17

vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18

KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18

latest

Enrique Marin

oldest →

vs Erick Montano · Nov 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricEnrique Marin

3.58

Strikes / min

1.43

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

58%

Strike defense

50%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

2.50

41%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttEnrique Marin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Enrique Marin(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.8|Blue -133.8

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetEnrique Marin

By target zone

61% acc · 88%

Head

38% acc · 75%

60% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

42% acc · 34%

Distance

39% acc · 75%

76% acc · 32%

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

88% acc · 34%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Enrique Marin rounds

Round 1Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control2:10

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:20

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Round 3Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:52

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 66

Sig Strikes

16 / 36

60%

Sig Str %

46%

106 / 135

Total Strikes

26 / 48

0 / 2

TDs

4 / 10

TD %

59.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:22

Ctrl Time

7:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Enrique Marin	6 / 12	10 / 17	1 / 2	0
1	Sage Northcutt	11 / 21	50 / 60	0 / 1	0
2	Enrique Marin	5 / 15	5 / 16	1 / 1	2
2	Sage Northcutt	9 / 16	16 / 24	0 / 1	0
3	Enrique Marin	5 / 9	11 / 15	2 / 7	0
3	Sage Northcutt	21 / 29	40 / 51	0 / 0	1

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Enrique Marin

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2