Lightweight

3 Rounds

Sage Northcutt won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1357

Sage NorthcuttvsCody PfisterUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sage Northcutt won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:41

Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsCody Pfister: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Sage Northcutt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sage Northcutt at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sage Northcutt has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Cody Pfister

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+650

(13%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW3 streak

oldest →

vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16

vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17

vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18

KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18

latest

Cody Pfister

oldest →

SUBvs James Moontasri · Feb 15

vs Yosdenis Cedeno · Jul 15

vs Scott Holtzman · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricCody Pfister

3.58

Strikes / min

1.41

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

58%

Strike defense

51%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

2.82

41%

Takedown defense

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap-1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttCody Pfister

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Cody Pfister(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.8|Blue -133.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetCody Pfister

By target zone

86% acc · 75%

Head

63% acc · 100%

100% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

By position

67% acc · 25%

Distance

33% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 75%

Ground

80% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Cody Pfister rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:37

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:20

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 9

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

50%

Sig Str %

58%

19 / 21

Total Strikes

40 / 44

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:57

Ctrl Time

3:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Pfister	4 / 6	39 / 42	1 / 1	0
1	Sage Northcutt	8 / 8	19 / 20	1 / 1	0
2	Cody Pfister	1 / 2	1 / 2	1 / 1	0
2	Sage Northcutt	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Cody Pfister

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4