Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Sage NorthcuttvsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:06

Style matchupSage Northcutt: Elusive strikervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Sage Northcutt wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sage Northcutt at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sage Northcutt enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sage Northcutt has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sage Northcutt

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sage NorthcuttW3 streak

oldest →

vs Enrique Marin · Jul 16

SUBvs Mickey Gall · Dec 16

vs Michel Quinones · Nov 17

vs Thibault Gouti · Feb 18

KOvs Zak Ottow · Jul 18

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sage NorthcuttMetricBryan Barberena

3.58

Strikes / min

5.35

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

58%

Strike defense

44%

1.81

TDs / 15 min

0.13

41%

Takedown defense

50%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62evenly matched on net striking+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sage NorthcuttBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sage Northcutt(8 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -229.0|Blue +229.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sage NorthcuttTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

57% acc · 88%

83% acc · 28%

Body

33% acc · 4%

67% acc · 11%

Leg

40% acc · 8%

By position

32% acc · 67%

Distance

29% acc · 27%

71% acc · 28%

Clinch

33% acc · 8%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

94% acc · 65%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sage Northcutt rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Sage Northcutt edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:24

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:37Control

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 45

Sig Strikes

26 / 48

37%

Sig Str %

54.5%

27 / 56

Total Strikes

67 / 94

1 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

20%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

3:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	10 / 25	26 / 42	1 / 1	0
1	Sage Northcutt	16 / 39	20 / 43	1 / 5	0
2	Bryan Barberena	16 / 23	41 / 52	0 / 0	1
2	Sage Northcutt	2 / 6	7 / 13	0 / 0	0

Sage Northcutt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19