Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alex Oliveira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1419

Ryan LaFlarevsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Alex Oliveira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:50

Style matchupRyan LaFlare: WrestlervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Ryan LaFlare wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan LaFlare at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ryan LaFlare has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Ryan LaFlare (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ryan LaFlare

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1491

Elo

1419

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan LaFlare

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Mar 15

vs Mike Pierce · Dec 15

vs Roan Carneiro · Feb 17

vs Alex Garcia · Apr 18

KOvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 18

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan LaFlareMetricAlex Oliveira

2.89

Strikes / min

2.99

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

63%

Strike defense

46%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

2.35

58%

Takedown defense

63%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan LaFlareAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan LaFlare(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.3|Blue -72.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan LaFlareTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

20% acc · 40%

Head

24% acc · 50%

75% acc · 60%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 38%

By position

18% acc · 40%

Distance

33% acc · 75%

Clinch

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 60%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan LaFlare rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Ryan LaFlare edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control4:18

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 14

Sig Strikes

8 / 21

59%

Sig Str %

33%

8 / 17

Total Strikes

8 / 21

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:19

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Oliveira	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 1	1
1	Ryan LaFlare	3 / 3	6 / 6	0 / 1	0
2	Alex Oliveira	7 / 17	7 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Ryan LaFlare	2 / 11	2 / 11	0 / 1	0

Ryan LaFlare

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21