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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · Submission R2

Elo1523

Elo1535

Renato MoicanovsChris DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

Submission · Round 2 · 3:14

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Chris Duncan

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Chris Duncan at -188 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupRenato Moicano: Pressure fightervsChris Duncan: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Renato Moicano threatens submissions; Chris Duncan has lost 100% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Renato Moicano

Red Corner

Chris Duncan

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-188

(65%)

1523

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Renato MoicanoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Feb 24

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

latest

Chris DuncanW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24

SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24

SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Renato MoicanoMetricChris Duncan

4.10

Strikes / min

4.83

3.55

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

59%

Strike defense

50%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

2.92

64%

Takedown defense

55%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.55evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Renato MoicanoChris Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Renato Moicano(10 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.2|Blue +12.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +161.0|Blue -161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Renato MoicanoTargetChris Duncan

By target zone

52% acc · 76%

Head

21% acc · 30%

100% acc · 19%

Body

71% acc · 19%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 52%

By position

59% acc · 95%

Distance

42% acc · 93%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Renato Moicano rounds

even

Chris Duncan rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:13

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 36

Sig Strikes

27 / 62

56.5%

Sig Str %

42.5%

62 / 84

Total Strikes

30 / 66

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:16

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Duncan	17 / 38	19 / 41	0 / 1	0
1	Renato Moicano	14 / 20	16 / 22	0 / 2	0
2	Chris Duncan	10 / 24	11 / 25	0 / 1	0
2	Renato Moicano	7 / 16	46 / 62	1 / 2	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Chris Duncan

Odds

-188

Market-implied probability

Chris Duncan 62%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Renato Moicano$250

Chris Duncan (model pick · research)$153

62% market-implied · model 39% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8