Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Estevam won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1503

Rafael EstevamvsJesus AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Estevam won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Estevam: WrestlervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Estevam at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jesus Aguilar has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rafael Estevam has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Rafael Estevam has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Estevam

Red Corner

Jesus Aguilar

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1504

Elo

1503

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Estevam

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 23

vs Felipe Bunes · Aug 25

KOvs Ethyn Ewing · Apr 26

latest

Jesus Aguilar

oldest →

KOvs Shannon Ross · Jul 23

vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24

SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24

vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25

vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael EstevamMetricJesus Aguilar

2.40

Strikes / min

2.54

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

45%

Strike defense

61%

4.91

TDs / 15 min

1.52

66%

Takedown defense

45%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.50Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael EstevamJesus Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Estevam(4 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael EstevamTargetJesus Aguilar

By target zone

30% acc · 55%

Head

35% acc · 74%

50% acc · 45%

Body

80% acc · 11%

Leg

71% acc · 14%

By position

32% acc · 82%

Distance

41% acc · 89%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

30% acc · 9%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Estevam rounds

even

Jesus Aguilar rounds

Round 1Rafael Estevam edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns5

Control3:54

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Rafael Estevam edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns5

Control4:30

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jesus Aguilar edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:58

28Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 30

Sig Strikes

35 / 87

60%

Sig Str %

62.3%

60 / 96

Total Strikes

41 / 95

11 / 19

TDs

2 / 5

56.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

9:22

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jesus Aguilar	2 / 2	3 / 3	0 / 0	1
1	Rafael Estevam	2 / 2	23 / 28	5 / 6	0
2	Jesus Aguilar	5 / 10	5 / 11	0 / 1	1
2	Rafael Estevam	1 / 2	29 / 42	5 / 7	0
3	Jesus Aguilar	28 / 75	33 / 81	2 / 4	0
3	Rafael Estevam	8 / 26	8 / 26	1 / 6	0

Rafael Estevam

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7