← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Estevam won · U-DEC R3

Elo1504

Elo1474

Rafael EstevamvsFelipe BunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Estevam won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRafael Estevam: WrestlervsFelipe Bunes: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(84.0%)

Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Estevam at -670 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Estevam has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Estevam

Red Corner

Felipe Bunes

Blue Corner

-670

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+490

(17%)

1504

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Rafael Estevam

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Nov 23

vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 25

KOvs Ethyn Ewing · Apr 26

latest

Felipe Bunes

oldest →

KOvs Joshua Van · Jan 24

SUBvs Jose Johnson · Jan 25

vs Edgar Chairez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Rafael EstevamMetricFelipe Bunes

2.40

Strikes / min

3.17

3.90

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

45%

Strike defense

47%

4.91

TDs / 15 min

1.08

66%

Takedown defense

40%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.50evenly matched on net striking-1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Rafael EstevamFelipe Bunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Rafael Estevam(4 fights)Felipe Bunes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.3|Blue -30.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Rafael EstevamTargetFelipe Bunes

By target zone

44% acc · 67%

Head

38% acc · 58%

36% acc · 15%

Body

45% acc · 19%

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

44% acc · 76%

Distance

46% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

58% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Rafael Estevam rounds

even

Felipe Bunes rounds

Round 1Rafael Estevam edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:48

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Rafael Estevam edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns2

Control4:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rafael Estevam edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:53

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 70

Sig Strikes

26 / 56

46.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

128 / 204

Total Strikes

38 / 75

5 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

61%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:42

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Bunes	7 / 14	8 / 16	0 / 1	1
1	Rafael Estevam	8 / 19	12 / 26	1 / 3	0
2	Felipe Bunes	9 / 17	13 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Rafael Estevam	17 / 35	47 / 83	2 / 4	0
3	Felipe Bunes	10 / 25	17 / 33	0 / 0	1
3	Rafael Estevam	8 / 16	69 / 95	2 / 2	0

Rafael Estevam

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Felipe Bunes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4