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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Kelly won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1351

Paul KellyvsTJ O'BrienUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Paul Kelly won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:16

Model Prediction: Paul Kelly wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Paul Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Kelly at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Kelly is a KO finisher (50% of wins). TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Paul Kelly threatens submissions; TJ O'Brien has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Paul Kelly has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
TJ O'Brien has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Kelly

Red Corner

TJ O'Brien

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1490

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

196 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul KellyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10

vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10

SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11

latest

TJ O'Brien

oldest →

SUBvs Cole Miller · Aug 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul KellyMetricTJ O'Brien

3.22

Strikes / min

3.77

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.34

TDs / 15 min

0.94

30%

Takedown defense

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul KellyTJ O'Brien

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Kelly(4 fights)TJ O'Brien(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.1|Blue -139.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.6|Blue +47.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul KellyTargetTJ O'Brien

By target zone

40% acc · 84%

Head

36% acc · 53%

67% acc · 5%

Body

63% acc · 16%

63% acc · 11%

Leg

71% acc · 31%

By position

26% acc · 39%

Distance

46% acc · 88%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

69% acc · 57%

Ground

67% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Kelly rounds

even

TJ O'Brien rounds

Round 1Paul Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:52

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paul Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:02

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 104

Sig Strikes

32 / 69

43.5%

Sig Str %

56%

106 / 171

Total Strikes

38 / 77

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:54

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	TJ O'Brien	19 / 52	24 / 58	0 / 0
1	Paul Kelly	17 / 58	19 / 60	1 / 1
2	TJ O'Brien	13 / 17	14 / 19	1 / 1
2	Paul Kelly	27 / 46	87 / 111	0 / 0

Paul Kelly

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

TJ O'Brien

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights2