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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Kelly won · SUB R2

Elo1490

Paul KellyvsMatt VeachUFC Prediction Result

UFC 112: Invincible · Saturday, April 10, 2010Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Paul Kelly won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:41

Style matchupPaul Kelly: Submission grapplervsMatt Veach: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paul Kelly wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Paul Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Kelly at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Kelly has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matt Veach has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Paul Kelly

Red Corner

Matt Veach

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

176.53 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Kelly

oldest →

vs Jacob Volkmann · Aug 10

KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10

SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11

latest

Matt VeachNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul KellyMetricMatt Veach

3.22

Strikes / min

1.12

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.91

59%

Strike defense

44%

1.34

TDs / 15 min

3.64

30%

Takedown defense

100%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 4.40 — meaningful gap-3.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul KellyMatt Veach

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Kelly(4 fights)Matt Veach(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul KellyTargetMatt Veach

By target zone

61% acc · 87%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

47% acc · 19%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

73% acc · 77%

Ground

67% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Kelly rounds

even

Matt Veach rounds

Round 1Paul Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control2:45

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 2Paul Kelly edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:40

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 73

Sig Strikes

4 / 9

64%

Sig Str %

41.5%

110 / 145

Total Strikes

9 / 14

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:25

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Veach	3 / 6	7 / 10	1 / 1	2
1	Paul Kelly	24 / 34	52 / 65	0 / 0	2
2	Matt Veach	1 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Paul Kelly	23 / 39	58 / 80	0 / 0	1

Paul Kelly

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Matt Veach

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights1