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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jacob Volkmann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1490

Paul KellyvsJacob VolkmannUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · Sunday, August 1, 2010San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Jacob Volkmann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupPaul Kelly: Submission grapplervsJacob Volkmann: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Paul Kelly wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Jacob Volkmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Kelly at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Kelly threatens submissions; Jacob Volkmann has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Jacob Volkmann has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jacob Volkmann (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Paul Kelly

Red Corner

Jacob Volkmann

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Paul Kelly

oldest →

SUBvs Matt Veach · Apr 10

KOvs TJ O'Brien · Nov 10

SUBvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 11

latest

Jacob Volkmann

oldest →

vs Danny Castillo · Aug 11

vs Efrain Escudero · Dec 11

SUBvs Paul Sass · May 12

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 12

SUBvs Bobby Green · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Paul KellyMetricJacob Volkmann

3.22

Strikes / min

1.19

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

1.78

59%

Strike defense

52%

1.34

TDs / 15 min

3.19

30%

Takedown defense

52%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Paul KellyJacob Volkmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Paul Kelly(4 fights)Jacob Volkmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -10.0|Blue +10.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Paul KellyTargetJacob Volkmann

By target zone

35% acc · 79%

Head

36% acc · 78%

67% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 6%

75% acc · 13%

Leg

71% acc · 16%

By position

19% acc · 25%

Distance

24% acc · 22%

60% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

63% acc · 63%

Ground

49% acc · 75%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Paul Kelly rounds

even

Jacob Volkmann rounds

Round 1Jacob Volkmann edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:12

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control2:20

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Round 3Jacob Volkmann edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:23

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 61

Sig Strikes

32 / 79

43.7%

Sig Str %

40%

45 / 85

Total Strikes

61 / 111

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 7

—

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:55

Ctrl Time

7:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jacob Volkmann	21 / 52	31 / 64	2 / 3	0
1	Paul Kelly	4 / 27	4 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Jacob Volkmann	7 / 14	12 / 20	1 / 1	1
2	Paul Kelly	9 / 15	24 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Jacob Volkmann	4 / 13	18 / 27	3 / 3	1
3	Paul Kelly	11 / 19	17 / 27	0 / 0	2

Paul Kelly

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Jacob Volkmann

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8