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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · SUB

Elo1496

Elo1521

Nina NunesvsMackenzie DernUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · Saturday, April 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

SUB

Style matchupNina Nunes: Well-roundedvsMackenzie Dern: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Nina Nunes has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Nina Nunes

Red Corner

Mackenzie Dern

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1496

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nina Nunes

oldest →

vs Cynthia Calvillo · Aug 22

latest

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nina NunesMetricMackenzie Dern

4.39

Strikes / min

3.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.93

55%

Strike defense

51%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.93

73%

Takedown defense

37%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.92Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nina NunesMackenzie Dern

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nina Nunes(2 fights)Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.7|Blue +24.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nina NunesTargetMackenzie Dern

By target zone

40% acc · 50%

Head

50% acc · 83%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

57% acc · 100%

Distance

53% acc · 67%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nina Nunes rounds

even

Mackenzie Dern rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 7

Sig Strikes

12 / 22

57%

Sig Str %

54%

5 / 8

Total Strikes

31 / 44

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mackenzie Dern	12 / 22	31 / 44	1 / 2	1
1	Nina Nunes	4 / 7	5 / 8	0 / 0	0

Nina Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16