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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · U-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1419

Nicolas DalbyvsAlex OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupNicolas Dalby: Well-roundedvsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Oliveira at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Nicolas Dalby

Red Corner

Alex Oliveira

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1508

Elo

1419

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Alex OliveiraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21

vs Niko Price · Oct 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Nicolas DalbyMetricAlex Oliveira

3.88

Strikes / min

2.99

3.51

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

52%

Strike defense

46%

0.90

TDs / 15 min

2.35

59%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.37evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Nicolas DalbyAlex Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +89.2|Blue -89.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +966.0|Blue -966.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Nicolas DalbyTargetAlex Oliveira

By target zone

30% acc · 61%

Head

35% acc · 78%

42% acc · 16%

Body

0% acc

88% acc · 23%

Leg

80% acc · 22%

By position

20% acc · 29%

Distance

36% acc · 72%

61% acc · 35%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

52% acc · 35%

Ground

50% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Nicolas Dalby rounds

even

Alex Oliveira rounds

Round 1Alex Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:34

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 2Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:59

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Nicolas Dalby edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:56

0Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 84

Sig Strikes

18 / 47

37%

Sig Str %

27.7%

64 / 122

Total Strikes

31 / 65

1 / 4

TDs

3 / 4

33.3%

TD %

83%

Sub Att

Rev

5:29

Ctrl Time

3:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Oliveira	12 / 32	12 / 33	0 / 0
1	Nicolas Dalby	7 / 29	7 / 29	0 / 2
2	Alex Oliveira	6 / 13	9 / 16	1 / 1
2	Nicolas Dalby	11 / 29	34 / 55	1 / 1
3	Alex Oliveira	0 / 2	10 / 16	2 / 3
3	Nicolas Dalby	13 / 26	23 / 38	0 / 1

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Alex Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights21