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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Pyle won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1364

Elo1353

Mike PylevsTJ WaldburgerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · Saturday, February 22, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mike Pyle won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:03

Style matchupMike Pyle: Submission grapplervsTJ Waldburger: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mike Pyle wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Mike Pyle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Pyle at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Pyle is a KO finisher (56% of wins). TJ Waldburger has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Mike Pyle has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mike Pyle has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mike Pyle

Red Corner

TJ Waldburger

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1364

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mike PyleL3 streak

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · May 15

KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16

KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16

KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16

KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18

latest

TJ Waldburger

oldest →

SUBvs Mike Stumpf · Sep 11

SUBvs Jake Hecht · Mar 12

vs Brian Ebersole · Jun 12

SUBvs Nick Catone · Dec 12

KOvs Adlan Amagov · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mike PyleMetricTJ Waldburger

2.74

Strikes / min

2.02

2.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.39

60%

Strike defense

40%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

3.03

70%

Takedown defense

40%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

4.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mike PyleTJ Waldburger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mike Pyle(10 fights)TJ Waldburger(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.3|Blue -11.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mike PyleTargetTJ Waldburger

By target zone

51% acc · 79%

Head

30% acc · 55%

100% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 18%

71% acc · 9%

Leg

91% acc · 26%

By position

37% acc · 38%

Distance

40% acc · 82%

67% acc · 25%

Clinch

58% acc · 18%

91% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mike Pyle rounds

even

TJ Waldburger rounds

Round 1Mike Pyle edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control1:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Mike Pyle edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:17

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Mike Pyle edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:52

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 101

Sig Strikes

38 / 89

49.7%

Sig Str %

44.3%

88 / 134

Total Strikes

49 / 102

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:18

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Waldburger	13 / 22	21 / 30	0 / 2	0
1	Mike Pyle	11 / 22	23 / 34	2 / 2	0
2	TJ Waldburger	13 / 35	14 / 37	0 / 0	1
2	Mike Pyle	8 / 26	20 / 39	2 / 2	0
3	TJ Waldburger	12 / 32	14 / 35	0 / 2	0
3	Mike Pyle	37 / 53	45 / 61	0 / 0	1

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights16

TJ Waldburger

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8