Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1465

Matheus NicolauvsMatt SchnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:44

Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matheus Nicolau has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matheus Nicolau has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Matt Schnell has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matheus Nicolau

Red Corner

Matt Schnell

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1491

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matheus NicolauMetricMatt Schnell

3.31

Strikes / min

4.07

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

65%

Strike defense

55%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

0.60

90%

Takedown defense

43%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matheus NicolauMatt Schnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.6|Blue -26.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matheus NicolauTargetMatt Schnell

By target zone

74% acc · 72%

Head

32% acc · 80%

86% acc · 19%

Body

43% acc · 15%

75% acc · 9%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

72% acc · 56%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

Clinch

82% acc · 44%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matheus Nicolau rounds

even

Matt Schnell rounds

Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:36

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 42

Sig Strikes

20 / 59

78%

Sig Str %

34.5%

40 / 50

Total Strikes

29 / 68

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Schnell	14 / 43	14 / 43	0 / 0
1	Matheus Nicolau	19 / 27	19 / 27	0 / 0
2	Matt Schnell	6 / 16	15 / 25	0 / 0
2	Matheus Nicolau	13 / 15	21 / 23	1 / 1

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18