Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matheus Nicolau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1463

Matheus NicolauvsDavid DvorakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Matheus Nicolau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsDavid Dvorak: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Nicolau at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matheus Nicolau has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matheus Nicolau

Red Corner

David Dvorak

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1491

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matheus NicolauL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

David DvorakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 20

vs Jordan Espinosa · Sep 20

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · May 21

vs Manel Kape · Dec 22

vs Steve Erceg · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matheus NicolauMetricDavid Dvorak

3.31

Strikes / min

3.48

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

65%

Strike defense

59%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

0.58

90%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matheus NicolauDavid Dvorak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)David Dvorak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.6|Blue -28.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matheus NicolauTargetDavid Dvorak

By target zone

34% acc · 58%

Head

29% acc · 64%

77% acc · 28%

Body

46% acc · 15%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

80% acc · 21%

By position

43% acc · 92%

Distance

33% acc · 85%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

57% acc · 10%

67% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matheus Nicolau rounds

even

David Dvorak rounds

Round 1David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns1

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Matheus Nicolau edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 81

Sig Strikes

39 / 110

42.7%

Sig Str %

35.7%

46 / 94

Total Strikes

60 / 134

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Dvorak	12 / 26	12 / 26	0 / 0
1	Matheus Nicolau	6 / 16	6 / 16	0 / 0
2	David Dvorak	19 / 48	20 / 49	0 / 0
2	Matheus Nicolau	17 / 35	26 / 45	0 / 0
3	David Dvorak	8 / 36	28 / 59	0 / 2
3	Matheus Nicolau	13 / 30	14 / 33	0 / 2

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11

David Dvorak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6