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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Asu Almabayev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1557

Matheus NicolauvsAsu AlmabayevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Asu Almabayev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Asu Almabayev wins(81.4%)

Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Asu Almabayev at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Asu Almabayev enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matheus Nicolau has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matheus Nicolau

Red Corner

Asu Almabayev

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1491

Elo

1557

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matheus NicolauL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24

latest

Asu AlmabayevW3 streak

oldest →

vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24

KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25

vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25

SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25

SUBvs Charles Johnson · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matheus NicolauMetricAsu Almabayev

3.31

Strikes / min

2.31

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

1.99

65%

Strike defense

53%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

4.46

90%

Takedown defense

44%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matheus NicolauAsu Almabayev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.1|Blue +65.1

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matheus NicolauTargetAsu Almabayev

By target zone

31% acc · 50%

Head

19% acc · 32%

56% acc · 31%

Body

89% acc · 36%

43% acc · 19%

Leg

78% acc · 32%

By position

32% acc · 75%

Distance

37% acc · 77%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

80% acc · 25%

Ground

80% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matheus Nicolau rounds

even

Asu Almabayev rounds

Round 1Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Asu Almabayev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:09Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 42

Sig Strikes

22 / 54

35.7%

Sig Str %

44%

38 / 68

Total Strikes

55 / 112

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

TD %

16%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Asu Almabayev	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Matheus Nicolau	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Asu Almabayev	6 / 22	11 / 27	1 / 6	0
2	Matheus Nicolau	10 / 24	12 / 27	0 / 1	1
3	Asu Almabayev	7 / 11	35 / 64	0 / 0	0
3	Matheus Nicolau	1 / 3	21 / 26	0 / 0	0

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11

Asu Almabayev

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8