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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Alex Perez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1498

Matheus NicolauvsAlex PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:16

Style matchupMatheus Nicolau: Well-roundedvsAlex Perez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Perez is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Matheus Nicolau has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matheus Nicolau

Red Corner

Alex Perez

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1491

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matheus NicolauL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Oct 21

vs David Dvorak · Mar 22

KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22

KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24

latest

Alex Perez

oldest →

vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matheus NicolauMetricAlex Perez

3.31

Strikes / min

4.41

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

65%

Strike defense

59%

1.22

TDs / 15 min

2.21

90%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matheus NicolauAlex Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.9|Blue +6.9

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matheus NicolauTargetAlex Perez

By target zone

30% acc · 59%

Head

22% acc · 39%

80% acc · 18%

Body

73% acc · 29%

83% acc · 23%

Leg

90% acc · 32%

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matheus Nicolau rounds

even

Alex Perez rounds

Round 1Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 55

Sig Strikes

28 / 71

41%

Sig Str %

39%

22 / 55

Total Strikes

28 / 71

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Perez	13 / 35	13 / 35	0 / 0
1	Matheus Nicolau	10 / 31	10 / 31	0 / 0
2	Alex Perez	15 / 36	15 / 36	0 / 0
2	Matheus Nicolau	12 / 24	12 / 24	0 / 0

Matheus Nicolau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights11

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16