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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Duncan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1535

Mateusz RebeckivsChris DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Duncan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMateusz Rebecki: WrestlervsChris Duncan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Chris Duncan wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Chris Duncan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Duncan at +198 American odds

+$198 profit

$298 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Mateusz Rebecki (53.5%).
Chris Duncan has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki

Red Corner

Chris Duncan

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+198

(34%)

1473

Elo

1535

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

167.64 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mateusz RebeckiL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Roosevelt Roberts · Nov 23

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 24

vs Myktybek Orolbai · Oct 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Oct 25

SUBvs Grant Dawson · May 26

latest

Chris Duncan

oldest →

SUBvs Manuel Torres · Feb 24

SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24

SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25

SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mateusz RebeckiMetricChris Duncan

4.79

Strikes / min

4.83

4.36

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

54%

Strike defense

50%

3.05

TDs / 15 min

2.92

53%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mateusz RebeckiChris Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mateusz Rebecki(8 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.6|Blue +61.6

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mateusz RebeckiTargetChris Duncan

By target zone

37% acc · 77%

Head

37% acc · 73%

54% acc · 6%

Body

57% acc · 22%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

83% acc · 5%

By position

104

41% acc · 91%

Distance

40% acc · 92%

91% acc · 9%

Clinch

88% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mateusz Rebecki rounds

even

Chris Duncan rounds

Round 1Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mateusz Rebecki edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns1

Control0:19

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns1

Control0:04

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 267

Sig Strikes

92 / 222

42.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

123 / 278

Total Strikes

95 / 225

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

41.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Duncan	19 / 62	19 / 62	0 / 1
1	Mateusz Rebecki	32 / 74	38 / 81	0 / 1
2	Chris Duncan	25 / 62	26 / 63	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Rebecki	38 / 88	38 / 88	1 / 1
3	Chris Duncan	48 / 98	50 / 100	0 / 0
3	Mateusz Rebecki	44 / 105	47 / 109	1 / 4

Mateusz Rebecki

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8