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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1506

Marcin TyburavsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura

Red Corner

Serghei Spivac

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1495

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Serghei Spivac

oldest →

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Aug 24

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25

vs Ante Delija · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricSerghei Spivac

3.56

Strikes / min

3.57

3.26

Strikes absorbed / min

4.23

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

3.82

70%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcin TyburaSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.0|Blue +11.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

40% acc · 84%

Head

29% acc · 88%

44% acc · 16%

Body

100% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

24% acc · 35%

Distance

27% acc · 77%

63% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 23%

66% acc · 53%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcin Tybura rounds

even

Serghei Spivac rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control2:49

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:22

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 106

Sig Strikes

26 / 83

37%

Sig Str %

33%

116 / 199

Total Strikes

40 / 101

2 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

40%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Serghei Spivac	10 / 27	13 / 31	0 / 0
1	Marcin Tybura	23 / 45	49 / 78	1 / 1
2	Serghei Spivac	11 / 23	15 / 29	0 / 1
2	Marcin Tybura	5 / 21	30 / 51	0 / 2
3	Serghei Spivac	5 / 33	12 / 41	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	15 / 40	37 / 70	1 / 5

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15