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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Serghei Spivac won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Marcin Tybura
Elo1506
Serghei Spivac

Marcin TyburavsSerghei SpivacUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Serghei Spivac won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:44

Style matchupMarcin Tybura: Well-roundedvsSerghei Spivac: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Serghei Spivac wins(76.7%)

Actual result: Serghei Spivac wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Serghei Spivac at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Marcin Tybura
Red Corner
VS
Serghei Spivac
Blue Corner
+124
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-160
(62%)
1495
Elo
1506
40
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcin TyburaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Mar 24
W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24
W
vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25
L
KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25
L
vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26
latest
Serghei Spivac
oldest →
W
SUBvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 23
L
KOvs Ciryl Gane · Sep 23
L
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 25
L
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jun 25
W
vs Ante Delija · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcin TyburaMetricSerghei Spivac
3.56
Strikes / min
3.57
3.26
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
55%
Strike defense
52%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
3.82
70%
Takedown defense
63%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.30evenly matched on net striking-0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1568 vs 1544Strikes3.6 vs 3.5Takedowns1.4 vs 4.6Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.70Form0.5 vs 0.0
Marcin TyburaSerghei Spivac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Marcin Tybura(10 fights)Serghei Spivac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -11.0|Blue +11.0
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -196.0|Blue +196.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcin TyburaTargetSerghei Spivac

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
50% acc · 67%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
3
60% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Marcin Tybura rounds
0
even
1
Serghei Spivac rounds
Round 1Serghei Spivac edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:43
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:34Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
0%
Sig Str %
60%
9 / 18
Total Strikes
8 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
0
0:43
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Serghei Spivac3 / 58 / 111 / 11
1Marcin Tybura0 / 49 / 180 / 00

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights24

Serghei Spivac

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights15