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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Francis Marshall won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1441

Elo1522

Marcelo RojovsFrancis MarshallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Francis Marshall won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:14

Style matchupMarcelo Rojo: Pressure fightervsFrancis Marshall: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Francis Marshall wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Francis Marshall wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francis Marshall at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francis Marshall has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Marcelo Rojo

Red Corner

Francis Marshall

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1441

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marcelo RojoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Jourdain · Mar 21

SUBvs Kyler Phillips · Feb 22

latest

Francis MarshallW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23

vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24

vs Mairon Santos · Mar 25

SUBvs Erik Silva · Feb 26

DECvs Lucas Brennan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marcelo RojoMetricFrancis Marshall

4.92

Strikes / min

3.19

6.42

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.46

TDs / 15 min

2.71

66%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.50Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marcelo RojoFrancis Marshall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marcelo Rojo(3 fights)Francis Marshall(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.1|Blue +81.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marcelo RojoTargetFrancis Marshall

By target zone

57% acc · 65%

Head

26% acc · 87%

80% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

62% acc · 77%

Distance

21% acc · 65%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

83% acc · 16%

Ground

86% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marcelo Rojo rounds

even

Francis Marshall rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 2Francis Marshall edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 47

Sig Strikes

23 / 81

65%

Sig Str %

28.5%

48 / 65

Total Strikes

29 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francis Marshall	11 / 44	17 / 51	1 / 3
1	Marcelo Rojo	18 / 26	35 / 44	0 / 0
2	Francis Marshall	12 / 37	12 / 38	0 / 0
2	Marcelo Rojo	13 / 21	13 / 21	0 / 0

Marcelo Rojo

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Francis Marshall

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7