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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Manuel Torres won · SUB R1
Elo1514
Manuel Torres editorial illustration
Elo1535

Manuel TorresvsChris DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Manuel Torres won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:46

Style matchupManuel Torres: Pressure fightervsChris Duncan: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Manuel Torres wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Manuel Torres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Manuel Torres at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Manuel Torres has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Manuel Torres (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Manuel Torres
Red Corner
VS
Chris Duncan
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+142
(41%)
1514
Elo
1535
31
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Manuel Torres
oldest →
W
KOvs Nikolas Motta · Jun 23
L
KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Sep 24
W
KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 25
W
KOvs Grant Dawson · Dec 25
L
KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jun 26
latest
Chris Duncan
oldest →
W
SUBvs Bolaji Oki · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Jordan Vucenic · Mar 25
W
vs Mateusz Rebecki · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Terrance McKinney · Dec 25
L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Manuel TorresMetricChris Duncan
7.29
Strikes / min
4.83
4.08
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
54%
Strike defense
50%
1.72
TDs / 15 min
2.92
90%
Takedown defense
55%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.21Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1535 vs 1536Strikes8.1 vs 4.9Takedowns3.3 vs 3.9Sub Atts1.60 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Manuel TorresChris Duncan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Manuel Torres(7 fights)Chris Duncan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -21.1|Blue +21.1
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Manuel TorresTargetChris Duncan

By target zone

2
50% acc · 67%
Head
1
50% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
50% acc · 100%
2
100% acc · 67%
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Manuel Torres rounds
0
even
0
Chris Duncan rounds
Round 1Manuel Torres edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control0:42
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 5
Sig Strikes
1 / 2
60%
Sig Str %
50%
5 / 7
Total Strikes
1 / 2
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 3
100%
TD %
33%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
0:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Duncan1 / 21 / 21 / 30
1Manuel Torres3 / 55 / 72 / 21

Manuel Torres

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Chris Duncan

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8