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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Mairon Santos won · S-DEC R3
Elo1558
Elo1522
Francis Marshall

Mairon SantosvsFrancis MarshallUFC Prediction Result

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mairon Santos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMairon Santos: StrikervsFrancis Marshall: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Mairon Santos wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Mairon Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mairon Santos at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mairon Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Francis Marshall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Mairon Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Marshall has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Mairon Santos
Red Corner
VS
Francis Marshall
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1558
Elo
1522
26
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mairon SantosW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Kaan Ofli · Aug 24
W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · May 25
W
KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Dec 25
latest
Francis MarshallW3 streak
oldest →
L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23
L
KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23
W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Feb 26
W
DECvs Lucas Brennan · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mairon SantosMetricFrancis Marshall
3.33
Strikes / min
3.19
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
65%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.71
69%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1516 vs 1501Strikes3.3 vs 3.4Takedowns0.0 vs 2.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs 0.3
Mairon SantosFrancis Marshall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801503152515481570← oldermost recent →
Mairon Santos(4 fights)Francis Marshall(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +35.7|Blue -35.7
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mairon SantosTargetFrancis Marshall

By target zone

29
36% acc · 50%
Head
32
24% acc · 82%
14
47% acc · 24%
Body
1
100% acc · 3%
15
79% acc · 26%
Leg
6
100% acc · 15%

By position

57
45% acc · 98%
Distance
39
27% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 2%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mairon Santos rounds
2
even
0
Francis Marshall rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:02
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 2Mairon Santos edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:22Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:38Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
58 / 129
Sig Strikes
39 / 143
45%
Sig Str %
26.7%
78 / 154
Total Strikes
64 / 179
0 / 1
TDs
3 / 5
0%
TD %
66.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
2:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Marshall16 / 4536 / 760 / 20
1Mairon Santos18 / 4218 / 420 / 10
2Francis Marshall8 / 408 / 402 / 20
2Mairon Santos19 / 3619 / 360 / 00
3Francis Marshall15 / 5820 / 631 / 10
3Mairon Santos21 / 5141 / 760 / 00

Mairon Santos

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Francis Marshall

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7