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Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Yan Xiaonan won · M-DEC R5
Elo1521
Mackenzie Dern editorial illustration
Elo1500

Mackenzie DernvsYan XiaonanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yan Xiaonan won

M-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Xiaonan at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Yan Xiaonan has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern
Red Corner
VS
Yan Xiaonan
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1521
Elo
1500
33
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
160.02 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23
L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24
W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25
W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25
latest
Yan Xiaonan
oldest →
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 22
W
KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23
L
vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24
W
vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricYan Xiaonan
3.47
Strikes / min
4.69
3.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
51%
Strike defense
60%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
0.84
37%
Takedown defense
64%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1569 vs 1551Strikes3.4 vs 5.0Takedowns0.9 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs -0.5
Mackenzie DernYan Xiaonan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +21.3|Blue -21.3
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetYan Xiaonan

By target zone

45
34% acc · 74%
Head
53
42% acc · 47%
10
77% acc · 16%
Body
14
67% acc · 12%
6
100% acc · 10%
Leg
46
96% acc · 41%

By position

52
38% acc · 85%
Distance
100
56% acc · 88%
3
43% acc · 5%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 5%
6
75% acc · 10%
Ground
7
88% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Mackenzie Dern rounds
0
even
3
Yan Xiaonan rounds
Round 1Yan Xiaonan edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control1:01
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 2Mackenzie Dern edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control2:44
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:50Control
Round 3Yan Xiaonan edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:12
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 4Yan Xiaonan edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:47
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:28Control
Round 5Mackenzie Dern edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control4:35
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
61 / 151
Sig Strikes
113 / 195
42%
Sig Str %
62.8%
224 / 339
Total Strikes
151 / 240
2 / 11
TDs
0 / 0
31.3%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
2
Rev
0
9:19
Ctrl Time
4:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Yan Xiaonan28 / 5238 / 620 / 00
1Mackenzie Dern16 / 4219 / 450 / 40
2Yan Xiaonan8 / 917 / 180 / 00
2Mackenzie Dern9 / 1556 / 780 / 02
3Yan Xiaonan32 / 6632 / 660 / 00
3Mackenzie Dern18 / 4522 / 491 / 40
4Mackenzie Dern14 / 3830 / 540 / 20
4Yan Xiaonan38 / 5649 / 670 / 00
5Yan Xiaonan7 / 1215 / 270 / 00
5Mackenzie Dern4 / 1197 / 1131 / 10

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights13