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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · U-DEC

Elo1521

Elo1529

Mackenzie DernvsVirna JandirobaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

U-DEC

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsVirna Jandiroba: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Virna Jandiroba has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Virna Jandiroba

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1521

Elo

1529

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'3"

160.02 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Virna Jandiroba

oldest →

vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 24

SUBvs Amanda Lemos · Jul 24

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 25

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 25

DECvs Tabatha Ricci · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricVirna Jandiroba

3.47

Strikes / min

2.27

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

51%

Strike defense

55%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

3.13

37%

Takedown defense

72%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernVirna Jandiroba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Virna Jandiroba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.0|Blue +8.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetVirna Jandiroba

By target zone

40% acc · 70%

Head

41% acc · 73%

76% acc · 20%

Body

79% acc · 24%

90% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

41% acc · 76%

Distance

39% acc · 68%

81% acc · 21%

Clinch

78% acc · 29%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Virna Jandiroba rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:54

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:19

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 3Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:21

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 174

Sig Strikes

63 / 134

47%

Sig Str %

48.7%

101 / 195

Total Strikes

80 / 152

0 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:34

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Virna Jandiroba	19 / 33	20 / 35	0 / 0
1	Mackenzie Dern	28 / 66	29 / 67	0 / 1
2	Virna Jandiroba	20 / 40	31 / 51	1 / 1
2	Mackenzie Dern	25 / 51	32 / 58	0 / 1
3	Virna Jandiroba	24 / 61	29 / 66	0 / 0
3	Mackenzie Dern	29 / 57	40 / 70	0 / 3

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Virna Jandiroba

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13