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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · SUB

Elo1521

Elo1494

Mackenzie DernvsRanda MarkosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

SUB

Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mackenzie Dern at -177 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Randa Markos has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Randa Markos

Blue Corner

-177

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1521

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Randa Markos

oldest →

vs Ashley Yoder · Oct 19

vs Amanda Ribas · Mar 20

vs Kanako Murata · Nov 20

vs Luana Pinheiro · May 21

vs Livinha Souza · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricRanda Markos

3.47

Strikes / min

2.97

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

51%

Strike defense

58%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

1.12

37%

Takedown defense

52%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernRanda Markos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Randa Markos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.1|Blue -27.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetRanda Markos

By target zone

60% acc · 67%

Head

60% acc · 100%

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 22%

Distance

60% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 78%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Randa Markos rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:45

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 13

Sig Strikes

3 / 5

69%

Sig Str %

60%

11 / 17

Total Strikes

7 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

1:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randa Markos	3 / 5	7 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Mackenzie Dern	9 / 13	11 / 17	0 / 0	5

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Randa Markos

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17