← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Marina Rodriguez won · U-DEC R5

Elo1521

Elo1483

Mackenzie DernvsMarina RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, October 9, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marina Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsMarina Rodriguez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Marina Rodriguez wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marina Rodriguez at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marina Rodriguez has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Marina Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1521

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

160.02 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Marina RodriguezL3 streak

oldest →

vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23

KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24

KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricMarina Rodriguez

3.47

Strikes / min

4.51

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

51%

Strike defense

55%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.27

37%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernMarina Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.7|Blue -37.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetMarina Rodriguez

By target zone

26% acc · 84%

Head

39% acc · 50%

40% acc · 8%

Body

67% acc · 27%

67% acc · 8%

Leg

94% acc · 23%

By position

23% acc · 73%

Distance

124

48% acc · 86%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

91% acc · 14%

75% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Marina Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:18

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control4:21

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:22

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:39

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Marina Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:41

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 174

Sig Strikes

144 / 279

29.2%

Sig Str %

44.6%

80 / 209

Total Strikes

148 / 284

1 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

12.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:21

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marina Rodriguez	24 / 49	24 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Mackenzie Dern	5 / 17	7 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Marina Rodriguez	1 / 6	2 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Mackenzie Dern	10 / 22	33 / 48	0 / 1	1
3	Marina Rodriguez	45 / 91	47 / 94	0 / 0	0
3	Mackenzie Dern	8 / 35	8 / 35	0 / 2	0
4	Mackenzie Dern	15 / 54	21 / 61	1 / 2	0
4	Marina Rodriguez	37 / 65	37 / 65	0 / 0	0
5	Marina Rodriguez	37 / 68	38 / 69	0 / 0	0
5	Mackenzie Dern	11 / 46	11 / 46	0 / 3	0

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Marina Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13