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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Mackenzie Dern won · U-DEC R3
Elo1521
Mackenzie Dern editorial illustration
Elo1507
Loopy Godinez

Mackenzie DernvsLoopy GodinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsLoopy Godinez: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Loopy Godinez wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Loopy Godinez at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Loopy Godinez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Loopy Godinez has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern
Red Corner
VS
Loopy Godinez
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1521
Elo
1507
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'2"
160.02 cm
Reach
154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Angela Hill · May 23
L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23
L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24
W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25
W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25
latest
Loopy Godinez
oldest →
W
vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 23
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Mar 24
W
vs Julia Polastri · Mar 25
W
vs Jessica Andrade · Aug 25
L
SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricLoopy Godinez
3.47
Strikes / min
4.43
3.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.94
51%
Strike defense
62%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
2.99
37%
Takedown defense
76%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1544Strikes3.4 vs 4.2Takedowns0.9 vs 3.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 1.00Form-0.5 vs 0.4
Mackenzie DernLoopy Godinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Loopy Godinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.6|Blue -13.6
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetLoopy Godinez

By target zone

61
32% acc · 85%
Head
45
39% acc · 67%
5
83% acc · 7%
Body
16
70% acc · 24%
6
67% acc · 8%
Leg
6
86% acc · 9%

By position

66
34% acc · 92%
Distance
58
43% acc · 87%
6
75% acc · 8%
Clinch
9
90% acc · 13%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Mackenzie Dern rounds
1
even
1
Loopy Godinez rounds
Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control1:49
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:20Control
Round 2Loopy Godinez edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control0:56
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
72 / 203
Sig Strikes
67 / 146
35%
Sig Str %
44.7%
103 / 235
Total Strikes
72 / 152
2 / 5
TDs
2 / 3
33.3%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
2:45
Ctrl Time
1:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Loopy Godinez15 / 3817 / 411 / 10
1Mackenzie Dern25 / 6749 / 921 / 20
2Loopy Godinez24 / 5524 / 551 / 21
2Mackenzie Dern24 / 6827 / 710 / 10
3Loopy Godinez28 / 5331 / 560 / 00
3Mackenzie Dern23 / 6827 / 721 / 20

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16

Loopy Godinez

StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach61.0"
Fights14