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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mackenzie Dern won · SUB R1

Elo1521

Elo1388

Mackenzie DernvsHannah CifersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:36

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsHannah Cifers: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Hannah Cifers wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hannah Cifers at +335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Hannah Cifers enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mackenzie Dern threatens submissions; Hannah Cifers has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Hannah Cifers has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Hannah Cifers

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1521

Elo

1388

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'1"

160.02 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Hannah CifersL3 streak

oldest →

vs Polyana Viana · Mar 19

vs Jodie Esquibel · Aug 19

KOvs Angela Hill · Jan 20

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jun 20

SUBvs Mallory Martin · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricHannah Cifers

3.47

Strikes / min

4.99

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

51%

Strike defense

52%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

0.26

37%

Takedown defense

64%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Mackenzie DernHannah Cifers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Hannah Cifers(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.9|Blue -132.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetHannah Cifers

By target zone

11% acc · 40%

Head

16% acc · 43%

100% acc · 20%

Body

50% acc · 43%

100% acc · 40%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

24% acc · 100%

Distance

16% acc · 43%

Clinch

80% acc · 57%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Hannah Cifers rounds

Round 1Hannah Cifers edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 21

Sig Strikes

7 / 26

23%

Sig Str %

26%

5 / 21

Total Strikes

11 / 31

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hannah Cifers	7 / 26	11 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Mackenzie Dern	5 / 21	5 / 21	0 / 1	1

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights16

Hannah Cifers

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7