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Strawweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Mackenzie Dern won · Decision R5

Elo1543

Elo1531

Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Mackenzie DernvsGillian RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Official fight result

Mackenzie Dern won

Decision · Round 5 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Gillian Robertson

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Gillian Robertson at +179 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsGillian Robertson: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Gillian Robertson enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern

Red Corner

Gillian Robertson

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1543

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

160.02 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mackenzie DernW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23

vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24

SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25

vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25

latest

Gillian RobertsonW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24

vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24

vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24

KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mackenzie DernMetricGillian Robertson

3.47

Strikes / min

2.71

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

51%

Strike defense

56%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

2.76

37%

Takedown defense

38%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Gillian Robertson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.9|Blue -12.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mackenzie DernTargetGillian Robertson

By target zone

29% acc · 62%

Head

35% acc · 76%

82% acc · 22%

Body

47% acc · 18%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

60% acc · 6%

By position

36% acc · 85%

Distance

24% acc · 49%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 16%

62% acc · 12%

Ground

81% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mackenzie Dern rounds

even

Gillian Robertson rounds

Round 1Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:28

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control3:19

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 3Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:39

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Mackenzie Dern edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 5Gillian Robertson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 168

Sig Strikes

49 / 131

39.2%

Sig Str %

32.8%

122 / 239

Total Strikes

136 / 237

4 / 6

TDs

1 / 3

75%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

10:48

Ctrl Time

6:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gillian Robertson	3 / 27	4 / 29	0 / 2	0
1	Mackenzie Dern	19 / 60	31 / 75	1 / 1	1
2	Mackenzie Dern	3 / 9	11 / 22	1 / 1	0
2	Gillian Robertson	0 / 6	26 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Mackenzie Dern	30 / 70	36 / 76	1 / 2	0
3	Gillian Robertson	26 / 63	29 / 67	0 / 0	0
4	Mackenzie Dern	5 / 15	20 / 32	1 / 2	0
4	Gillian Robertson	6 / 11	30 / 37	0 / 0	0
5	Gillian Robertson	14 / 24	47 / 69	1 / 1	0
5	Mackenzie Dern	8 / 14	24 / 34	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Mackenzie Dern

Odds

-222

Market-implied probability

Gillian Robertson 34%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Mackenzie Dern$145

Gillian Robertson (model pick · research)$279

34% market-implied · model 52% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at +179 · never rewritten

Mackenzie Dern

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights17

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights21